Center for Extreme Load Effects on Structures


Risk Management:
Decision making and strategy

Related Links:

HAZUS loss estimation software from the Federal Emergency Management Agency

Virginia Tech Seismological Observatory (VTSO

Risk Analysis for Extreme Events: Economic Incentives for Reducing Future Losses by Howard Kunreuther, Robert Meyer and Christophe Van den Bulte

The most difficult step in preparing for hazards is risk management. No community or organization has the resources to protect itself fully from all hazards. Choices must be made between spending scarce funds today and potential consequences that may not even happen.

Decisions are made difficult due to:

  • incomplete information;
  • imperfect predictions;
  • the variety of groups involved, including private businesses, utilities, state agencies, and local governments

Critical actions/decisions for communities and organizations:
  1. establish goals for hazard protection
  2. determine acceptable losses and tolerance for risk
  3. identify critical structures and lifelines
  4. define priorities: What is most critical for survival? What will yield the most protection for the money?
  5. choose mitigation that works
  6. enforce decisions
  7. educate the community and keep awareness up so efforts can succeed

The Big questions:

  • Who will pay?
  • Can it be done economically?
  • What value should be put on human life?
  • Is the problem too big?

Decision support:

  • visualization and mapping
  • software for determining trade-offs
  • involvement of technical and social experts

United States Geological Survey (USGS). 1995. USGS Natural Hazards Programs: Lessons Learned for Reducing Risk.

Goals: resilience, sustainability

Recent research indicates that balancing needs, goals, and resources can be made easier when resilience and sustainability are the goals.

Resilience
is the ability of structures, businesses, and communities to withstand extreme events. Absolute protection from every level of hazard is impossible, but a reasonable goal is to survive extreme events with minimal damage. The ability to bounce back and quickly gain function is resilience.

Sustainability
Strategies to reduce risk from extreme events should strengthen a community's social, economic, and environmental resiliency. Communities that emphasize sustainable development are less likely to experience events that become disasters.

Meliti, D. 1999. Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States. Joseph Henry Press.

Hazard intrusiveness:

How well a community fares in a disaster depends on its preparation, which is directly influenced by the community's perception of the hazard.

CELES research, tools and experience:

Software for analyzing and predicting earthquake hazard and risk:. This can be used for custom analysis.

Prediction and Geographical Information System (GIS) Mapping of Ground Motions and Site Response in Charleston, SC and Two Neighboring Counties: First Phase Development of a GIS for Seismic Hazard Evaluation

"Estimated Magnitudes and Ground Motions Characteristics Associated with Prehistoric Earthquakes in the Wabash Valley Region of the Central United States," (USGS)

"Wide-Angle Reflection and Potential Field Modeling of the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone", collaborative work involving Virginia Tech, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill and University of Georgia (NSF)

Next: Implementation and Mitigation